How causal knowledge simplifies decision-making

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_A404D387841E
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
How causal knowledge simplifies decision-making
Journal
Minds and Machines
Author(s)
Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U.
ISSN
0924-6495
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2006
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
16
Number
3
Pages
365-380
Language
english
Abstract
Making decisions can be hard, but it can also be facilitated. Simple heuristics are fast and frugal but nevertheless fairly accurate decision rules that people can use to compensate for their limitations in computational capacity, time, and knowledge when they make decisions [Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. New York: Oxford University Press.]. These heuristics are effective to the extent that they can exploit the structure of information in the environment in which they operate. Specifically, they require knowledge about the predictive value of probabilistic cues. However, it is often difficult to keep track of all the available cues in the environment and how they relate to any relevant criterion. This problem becomes even more critical if compound cues are considered. We submit that knowledge about the causal structure of the environment helps decision makers focus on a manageable subset of cues, thus effectively reducing the potential computational complexity inherent in even relatively simple decision-making tasks. We review experimental evidence that tested this hypothesis and report the results of a simulation study. We conclude that causal knowledge can act as a meta-cue for identifying highly valid cues, either individual or compound, and helps in the estimation of their validities.
Keywords
Causal knowledge, Compound cue, Cue selection, Fast and frugal heuristics, Search processes, Take the Best, Take the Best Configural, Validity estimation
Web of science
Create date
24/02/2009 15:34
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:09
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