High-resolution land use/cover forecasts for Switzerland in the 21st century.

Details

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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_A2062C049527
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
High-resolution land use/cover forecasts for Switzerland in the 21st century.
Journal
Scientific data
Author(s)
Bütikofer L., Adde A., Urbach D., Tobias S., Huss M., Guisan A., Randin C. (co-last)
ISSN
2052-4463 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2052-4463
Publication state
Published
Issued date
23/02/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Number
1
Pages
231
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Dataset ; Journal Article
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
We present forecasts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for Switzerland for three time-steps in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, and at 100-m spatial and 14-class thematic resolution. We modelled the spatial suitability for each LULC class with a neural network (NN) using > 200 predictors and accounting for climate and policy changes. We improved model performance by using a data augmentation algorithm that synthetically increased the number of cells of underrepresented classes, resulting in an overall quantity disagreement of 0.053 and allocation disagreement of 0.15, which indicate good prediction accuracy. These class-specific spatial suitability maps outputted by the NN were then merged in a single LULC map per time-step using the CLUE-S algorithm, accounting for LULC demand for the future and a set of LULC transition rules. As the first LULC forecast for Switzerland at a thematic resolution comparable to available LULC maps for the past, this product lends itself to applications in land-use planning, resource management, ecological and hydraulic modelling, habitat restoration and conservation.
Keywords
Library and Information Sciences, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Computer Science Applications, Education, Information Systems, Statistics and Probability
Pubmed
Open Access
Yes
Create date
24/02/2024 16:48
Last modification date
05/04/2024 8:22
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