Testing for Differences in the Tails of Stock-Market Returns
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_9C241DC55A56
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Testing for Differences in the Tails of Stock-Market Returns
Journal
Journal of Empirical Finance
ISSN
0927-5398
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2003
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
10
Number
5
Pages
559-581
Language
english
Abstract
In this paper, we use a database consisting of daily stock-market returns for 20 countries to test for similarities between the left and right tails of returns, as well as across countries. We estimate and test using the distribution of extreme returns over subsamples approach. Via Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that maximum-likelihood estimators are essentially unbiased, provided the size of subsamples is correctly chosen, and that the likelihood-ratio tests on parameters characterizing the behavior of extremes are correctly sized. For actual returns, we find that left and right tails behave very similarly. Across countries, we find that extremes are located at different levels and that their dispersion varies. The tail index, characterizing large extreme realizations, is found to be constant within each geographical group. We verify that the perception that left tails are heavier than right ones is not due to clustering of extremes. The failure to detect statistical significant differences is likely to be due to the relative infrequency of large extremes.
Keywords
Extreme value theory, Generalized extreme value distribution, Emerging markets, Stock-market return
Publisher's website
Create date
19/11/2007 10:42
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:02