A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_9C195EC6115A
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.
Journal
Statistics in Medicine
Author(s)
Taffé P., May M.
Working group(s)
Swiss HIV Cohort Study
Contributor(s)
Bachmann S., Battegay M., Bernasconi E., Bucher H., Bürgisser P., Cattacin S., Egger M., Erb P., Fierz W., Fischer M., Flepp M., Fontana A., Francioli P., Furrer HJ., Gorgievski M., Günthard H., Hirschel B., Kaiser L., Kind C., Klimkait T., Ledergerber B., Lauper U., Opravil M., Paccaud F., Pantaleo G., Perrin L., Piffaretti JC., Rickenbach M., Rudin C., Schüpbach J., Speck R., Telenti A., Trkola A., Vernazza P., Weber R., Yerly S.
ISSN
0277-6715 (Print)
ISSN-L
0277-6715
Publication state
Published
Issued date
10/2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
27
Number
23
Pages
4835-4853
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
In studies of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the time scale of primary interest is the time since infection. Unfortunately, this time is very often unknown for HIV infection and using the follow-up time instead of the time since infection is likely to provide biased results because of onset confounding. Laboratory markers such as the CD4 T-cell count carry important information concerning disease progression and can be used to predict the unknown date of infection. Previous work on this topic has made use of only one CD4 measurement or based the imputation on incident patients only. However, because of considerable intrinsic variability in CD4 levels and because incident cases are different from prevalent cases, back calculation based on only one CD4 determination per person or on characteristics of the incident sub-cohort may provide unreliable results. Therefore, we propose a methodology based on the repeated individual CD4 T-cells marker measurements that use both incident and prevalent cases to impute the unknown date of infection. Our approach uses joint modelling of the time since infection, the CD4 time path and the drop-out process. This methodology has been applied to estimate the CD4 slope and impute the unknown date of infection in HIV patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A procedure based on the comparison of different slope estimates is proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the imputation. Results of simulation studies indicated that the imputation procedure worked well, despite the intrinsic high volatility of the CD4 marker.
Keywords
Adult, Algorithms, Biological Markers, CD4 Lymphocyte Count/methods, CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes/immunology, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, HIV Infections/transmission, HIV Seroprevalence, HIV-1, Humans, Models, Statistical, Switzerland/epidemiology, Time Factors
Pubmed
Web of science
Create date
18/02/2009 9:55
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:02
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