The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_81C459BB1700
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Author(s)
Domeisen Daniela I. V., Butler Amy H., Charlton-Perez Andrew J., Ayarzagüena Blanca, Baldwin Mark P., Dunn-Sigouin Etienne, Furtado Jason C., Garfinkel Chaim I., Hitchcock Peter, Karpechko Alexey Yu., Kim Hera, Knight Jeff, Lang Andrea L., Lim Eun-Pa, Marshall Andrew, Roff Greg, Schwartz Chen, Simpson Isla R., Son Seok-Woo, Taguchi Masakazu
ISSN
2169-897X
2169-8996
Publication state
Published
Issued date
27/01/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
125
Number
2
Language
english
Abstract
The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems to capture two important links between the stratosphere and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic prediction skill in the extratropical stratosphere by precursors in the tropics and the extratropical troposphere and (2) changes in surface predictability in the extratropics after stratospheric weak and strong vortex events. Probabilistic skill exists for stratospheric events when including extratropical tropospheric precursors over the North Pacific and Eurasia, though only a limited set of models captures the Eurasian precursors. Tropical teleconnections such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation increase the probabilistic skill of the polar vortex strength, though these are only captured by a limited set of models. At the surface, predictability is increased over the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for weak vortex events, but not for Europe, and the change in predictability is smaller for strong vortex events for all prediction systems. Prediction systems with poorly resolved stratospheric processes represent this skill to a lesser degree. Altogether, the analyses indicate that correctly simulating stratospheric variability and stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling are critical elements for skillful S2S wintertime predictions.
Keywords
stratosphere, sub-seasonal predictability, S2S database, sudden stratospheric warming, stratosphere - troposphere coupling, North Atlantic Oscillation
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_170523
Create date
08/03/2022 15:13
Last modification date
11/07/2024 10:51
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