Version: Final published version
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Estimating value-at-risk: a point process approach
We consider the modelling of extreme returns in financial time series, and introduce a marked point process model for the exceedances of a high threshold. This model has a self-exciting, Hawkes-process structure in which recent events affect the current intensity of threshold exceedances more than distant ones. Estimates of value-at-risk are derived for real datasets and the success of the estimation method is evaluated in backtests.
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