Risk and Rationality: Uncovering Heterogeneity in Probability Distortion

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_5E0378B1A236
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Risk and Rationality: Uncovering Heterogeneity in Probability Distortion
Journal
Econometrica
Author(s)
Bruhin A., Fehr-Duda H., Epper T.
ISSN
0012-9682
Publication state
Published
Issued date
07/2010
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
78
Number
4
Pages
1375-1412
Language
english
Abstract
It has long been recognized that there is considerable heterogeneity in individual risk taking behavior, but little is known about the distribution of risk taking types. We present a parsimonious characterization of risk taking behavior by estimating a finite mixture model for three different experimental data sets, two Swiss and one Chinese, over a large number of real gains and losses. We find two major types of individuals: In all three data sets, the choices of roughly 80% of the subjects exhibit significant deviations from linear probability weighting of varying strength, consistent with prospect theory. Twenty percent of the subjects weight probabilities near linearly and behave essentially as expected value maximizers. Moreover, individuals are cleanly assigned to one type with probabilities close to unity. The reliability and robustness of our classification suggest using a mix of preference theories in applied economic modeling.
Keywords
individual risk taking behavior, latent heterogeneity, finite mixture models, prospect theory
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Create date
10/09/2012 11:03
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:16
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