Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_54A88C89AA72
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research
Périodique
Electoral Studies
Auteur(s)
Strijbis Oliver, Arnesen Sveinung, Bernhard Laurent
ISSN
0261-3794
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
12/2016
Volume
44
Pages
144-150
Langue
anglais
Résumé
This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.
Mots-clé
Turnout, Rationality, Direct democracy, Prediction markets, Switzerland
Web of science
Création de la notice
17/10/2018 10:12
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:09
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