Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

Détails

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Etat: Serval
Version: de l'auteur
ID Serval
serval:BIB_51D9ADA4C98D
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio
Périodique
Law, Probability and Risk
Auteur(s)
Taroni Franco, Bozza Silvia, Biedermann Alex, Aitken Colin
ISSN
1470-8396
1470-840X
ISSN-L
1470-8396
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
03/2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
15
Numéro
1
Pages
1-16
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.
Mots-clé
Bayes factor, likelihood ratio, probability estimation, uncertainty variability, Philosophy, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Law
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
03/03/2016 10:20
Dernière modification de la notice
08/05/2019 18:36
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