## Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

### Détails

ID Serval

serval:BIB_51D9ADA4C98D

Type

**Article**: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.

Collection

Publications

Fonds

Titre

Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

Périodique

Law, Probability & Risk

ISSN

1470-840X

ISSN-L

1470-8396

Statut éditorial

Publié

Date de publication

03/2016

Peer-reviewed

Oui

Volume

15

Numéro

1

Pages

1-16

Langue

anglais

Résumé

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Mots-clé

Bayes factor, likelihood ratio, probability estimation, uncertainty variability

Création de la notice

03/03/2016 10:20

Dernière modification de la notice

18/11/2016 14:31