Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men.

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_4F0CD72D6F9F
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men.
Journal
PLoS computational biology
Author(s)
Andresen S., Balakrishna S., Mugglin C., Schmidt A.J., Braun D.L., Marzel A., Doco Lecompte T., Darling K.E., Roth J.A., Schmid P., Bernasconi E., Günthard H.F., Rauch A., Kouyos R.D., Salazar-Vizcaya L.
Working group(s)
Swiss HIV Cohort Study
ISSN
1553-7358 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1553-734X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
10/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
18
Number
10
Pages
e1010559
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
Machine learning is increasingly introduced into medical fields, yet there is limited evidence for its benefit over more commonly used statistical methods in epidemiological studies. We introduce an unsupervised machine learning framework for longitudinal features and evaluate it using sexual behaviour data from the last 20 years from over 3'700 participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We use hierarchical clustering to find subgroups of men who have sex with men in the SHCS with similar sexual behaviour up to May 2017, and apply regression to test whether these clusters enhance predictions of sexual behaviour or sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) after May 2017 beyond what can be predicted with conventional parameters. We find that behavioural clusters enhance model performance according to likelihood ratio test, Akaike information criterion and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for all outcomes studied, and according to Bayesian information criterion for five out of ten outcomes, with particularly good performance for predicting future sexual behaviour and recurrent STIs. We thus assess a methodology that can be used as an alternative means for creating exposure categories from longitudinal data in epidemiological models, and can contribute to the understanding of time-varying risk factors.
Keywords
Male, Humans, Homosexuality, Male, Cohort Studies, Unsupervised Machine Learning, Bayes Theorem, Sexual and Gender Minorities, Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology, Sexual Behavior, HIV Infections/epidemiology
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
08/11/2022 12:45
Last modification date
23/01/2024 8:25
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