HOPE survival probability cutoff for ECLS rewarming in hypothermic cardiac arrest.
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_432D6E1A065C
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
HOPE survival probability cutoff for ECLS rewarming in hypothermic cardiac arrest.
Journal
Resuscitation plus
ISSN
2666-5204 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2666-5204
Publication state
Published
Issued date
06/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
18
Pages
100616
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: epublish
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
The HOPE score (https://www.hypothermiascore.org) is a validated instrument for estimating the survival probability of patients in hypothermic cardiac arrest with ECLS rewarming. It is based on six patient characteristics: sex, age, mechanism of hypothermia, duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, serum potassium and temperature. The HOPE score provides a reliable estimate of survival probability that can be used to decide whether to rewarm a patient. In the initial publication of the HOPE score, a cutoff of 10% was proposed, below which a patient would not be rewarmed. This choice was tentative and subject to debate. In this paper, we examine the implications of this choice on the proportions of false positives (i.e., rewarmed patient who ends up dying) and false negatives (i.e., non-rewarmed patients who would have survived if rewarmed), and we provide approximate formulas to obtain upper bounds for these proportions as a function of the cutoff chosen. In particular, the choice of a 10% cutoff will result in a proportion of FP of less than 40% and a proportion of FN of less than 0.5% in many practical situations.
Keywords
Accidental hypothermia, Cardiac arrest, Cutoff, Decision making, ECLS rewarming, False negative: False positive, HOPE score, Survival probability
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
02/04/2024 9:13
Last modification date
09/08/2024 14:58