Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_40FC5424A6B6
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Sous-type
Synthèse (review): revue aussi complète que possible des connaissances sur un sujet, rédigée à partir de l'analyse exhaustive des travaux publiés.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.
Périodique
Trends in ecology & evolution
Auteur(s)
Yates K.L., Bouchet P.J., Caley M.J., Mengersen K., Randin C.F., Parnell S., Fielding A.H., Bamford A.J., Ban S., Barbosa A.M., Dormann C.F., Elith J., Embling C.B., Ervin G.N., Fisher R., Gould S., Graf R.F., Gregr E.J., Halpin P.N., Heikkinen R.K., Heinänen S., Jones A.R., Krishnakumar P.K., Lauria V., Lozano-Montes H., Mannocci L., Mellin C., Mesgaran M.B., Moreno-Amat E., Mormede S., Novaczek E., Oppel S., Ortuño Crespo G., Peterson A.T., Rapacciuolo G., Roberts J.J., Ross R.E., Scales K.L., Schoeman D., Snelgrove P., Sundblad G., Thuiller W., Torres L.G., Verbruggen H., Wang L., Wenger S., Whittingham M.J., Zharikov Y., Zurell D., Sequeira AMM
ISSN
1872-8383 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0169-5347
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
10/2018
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
33
Numéro
10
Pages
790-802
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Review
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.
Mots-clé
Ecology/methods, Models, Biological, Predictive modeling, extrapolation, generality, habitat models, model transfers, species distribution models, uncertainty
Pubmed
Web of science
Création de la notice
03/09/2018 12:44
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 14:40
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