1. The combined effects of climate change and other factors, such as land use change or fire disturbance, pose daunting challenges for biodiversity conservation worldwide.
2. In this study, we predicted the future effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000), the current network of protected areas (PA) in Europe, at maintaining and representing suitable environmental conditions for a set of 79 bird species between 2000 and 2050 in a fire-prone area strongly affected by land abandonment processes in NE Spain. We then compared its performance against a set of alternative priority areas for conservation that take into account fire–vegetation dynamics, selected by using a conservation planning tool (MARXAN). Fire–vegetation dynamics were modelled using a process-based model (MEDFIRE MODEL) under alternative fire management and climate change scenarios. Bird species distributions were predicted using the spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling frameworkSESAMthat hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics.
3. The amount of suitable environmental conditions within the N2000 network was predicted to fall by around 15%, on average, over the next decades in relation to the initial conditions, but could be partially modulated by fire management policies in the near future. The efficiency of the current PA system was predicted to decrease from 17.4 to 15% over the next five decades. However, a more efficient PA system could be achieved with a conservation planning approach that explicitly considers fire–vegetation dynamics and their management.
4. Synthesis and applications: Our findings shed light on: (1) the role of the current Natura 2000 to prevent future impacts of climate and land cover changes on bird communities; and (2) how the relocation of some protected areas could be considered along the next decades to substantially increase its conservation effectiveness; (3) the relevance of incorporating fire-vegetation dynamics into conservation planning; and (4) how the integration of fire management policies and their objectives within conservation planning can provide ‘win-win’ solutions for bird conservation and fire prevention in fire-prone abandoned landscapes.