Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_3AEC18F3AE40
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies
Journal
Annales d'Economie et de Statistique / Annals of Economics and Statistics
Author(s)
Jondeau E., Le Bihan H.
ISSN
0769-489X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2002
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Number
67/68
Pages
361-393
Language
english
Abstract
In this paper, we estimate two small macroeconomic models for the US\ and Germany and we compare the implied optimal monetary policy rules. We consider a model which has been used extensively in the literature (including a Phillips curve, an I-S curve, and a monetary policy rule) and which incorporates some forward-looking features.\ We estimate this model over the period from 1968 to 1998, using the full-information maximum-likelihood procedure, so that forward-looking expectations are fully model-consistent. On the basis of stability tests, the model is shown to have some robustness with respect to the Lucas critique. Then, we compute optimal monetary policy rules in the class of Taylor rules with interest-rate smoothing.\ We find that optimal policies imply a strong degree of interest-rate smoothing. Moreover, German optimal monetary policy is found to require a more persistent and slightly stronger response to inflation and output than the US optimal policy. Last, we provide evidence on the robustness of the German optimal monetary policy to parameter uncertainty.
Keywords
Forward-looking model, the Lucas critique, monetary policy rules, optimal policy frontier
Create date
19/11/2007 11:17
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:30
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