Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: BIB_371FC43292E7.P001.pdf (466.60 [Ko])
Etat: Serval
Version: Final published version
ID Serval
serval:BIB_371FC43292E7
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks
Périodique
Frontiers in Psychology
Auteur(s)
Hoffrage U., Krauss S., Martignon L., Gigerenzer G.
ISSN
1664-1078
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
10/2015
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
6
Numéro
1473
Pages
1-14
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Representing statistical information in terms of natural frequencies rather than probabilities improves performance in Bayesian inference tasks. This beneficial effect of natural frequencies has been demonstrated in a variety of applied domains such as medicine, law, and education. Yet all the research and applications so far have been limited to situations where one dichotomous cue is used to infer which of two hypotheses is true. Real-life applications, however, often involve situations where cues (e.g., medical tests) have more than one value, where more than two hypotheses (e.g., diseases) are considered, or where more than one cue is available. In Study 1, we show that natural frequencies, compared to information stated in terms of probabilities, consistently increase the proportion of Bayesian inferences made by medical students in four conditions-three cue values, three hypotheses, two cues, or three cues-by an average of 37 percentage points. In Study 2, we show that teaching natural frequencies for simple tasks with one dichotomous cue and two hypotheses leads to a transfer of learning to complex tasks with three cue values and two cues, with a proportion of 40 and 81% correct inferences, respectively. Thus, natural frequencies facilitate Bayesian reasoning in a much broader class of situations than previously thought.
Mots-clé
Bayesian inference, Representation of information, Natural frequencies, Task complexity, Instruction, Fast-and-frugal trees, Visualization
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
01/04/2016 16:06
Dernière modification de la notice
08/05/2019 17:03
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