Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_2D2D066D5161
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.
Périodique
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Auteur(s)
Visconti P., Pressey R.L., Giorgini D., Maiorano L., Bakkenes M., Boitani L., Alkemade R., Falcucci A., Chiozza F., Rondinini C.
ISSN
1471-2970 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0962-8436
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2011
Volume
366
Numéro
1578
Pages
2693-2702
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.
Mots-clé
Agriculture, Animals, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Endangered Species, Forecasting, Humans, Mammals/growth & development, Models, Biological
Pubmed
Web of science
Création de la notice
11/05/2011 7:31
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 13:12
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