Assessing the Performance of Random Forests for Modeling Claim Severity in Collision Car Insurance

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_1FCA98100E54
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Assessing the Performance of Random Forests for Modeling Claim Severity in Collision Car Insurance
Journal
Risks
Author(s)
Staudt Y., Wagner J.
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2021
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
9
Number
53
Language
english
Abstract
For calculating non-life insurance premiums actuaries traditionally rely on separate severity and frequency models using covariates to explain the claims loss exposure. In this paper, we focus on the claim severity. First, we build two reference models, a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model, relying on a log-normal distribution of the severity and including the most significant factors. Thereby, we follow Henckaerts et al. (2018) to relate the continuous variables to the response in a nonlinear way. In the second step, we tune two random forest models, one for the claim severity and one for the log-transformed claim severity where the latter requires a transformation of the predicted results. We compare the prediction performance of the different models using the relative error, the root mean squared error and the goodness-of-lift statistics in combination with goodness-of-fit statistics (Denuit et al. 2019). In our application, we rely on a dataset of a Swiss collision insurance portfolio covering the loss exposure of the period from 2011 to 2015 and including observations from 81 309 settled claims with a total amount of CHF 184 mio. In the analysis, we use the data from 2011 to 2014 for training and from 2015 for testing. Our results indicate that the use of a log-normal transformation of the severity is not leading to performance gains with random forests. However, random forests with a log-normal transformation are the favorite choice to explain right-skewed claims. Finally, when considering all indicators, we conclude that the generalized additive model has the best overall performance.
Keywords
regression model, data-driven binning, random forest, performance analysis, severity modeling
Open Access
Yes
Create date
09/03/2021 15:47
Last modification date
17/03/2021 7:08
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