Prior research on school dropout has often focused on stable person- and institution-level
variables. In this research, we investigate longitudinally perceived stress and optimism as
predictors of dropout intentions over a period of four years, and distinguish between
stable and temporary predictors of dropout intentions. Findings based on a nationally
representative sample of 16e20 year-olds in Switzerland (N ¼ 4312) show that both
average levels of stress and optimism as well as annually varying levels of stress and
optimism affect dropout intentions. Additionally, results show that optimism buffers the
negative impact of annually varying stress (i.e., years with more stress than usual), but not
of stable levels of stress (i.e., stress over four years). The implications of the results are
discussed according to a dynamic and preventive approach of school dropout.