A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction.

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Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_F00A948C74FB
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction.
Périodique
Ecology letters
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Silvestro D., Castiglione S., Mondanaro A., Serio C., Melchionna M., Piras P., Di Febbraro M., Carotenuto F., Rook L., Raia P.
ISSN
1461-0248 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1461-023X
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
03/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
23
Numéro
3
Pages
439-446
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Letter
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
Leigh Van Valen famously stated that under constant conditions extinction probability is independent of species age. To test this 'law of constant extinction', we developed a new method using deep learning to infer age-dependent extinction and analysed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We show that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases, indicating that most species died out soon after their appearance while those which survived experienced ever decreasing extinction risk. This age-dependent extinction pattern is stronger towards the Equator and holds true when the potential effects of mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation are accounted for. These results suggest that the effect of biological interactions on age-dependent extinction rate is more intense towards the tropics. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognised, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern.
Mots-clé
Animals, Biodiversity, Biological Evolution, Extinction, Biological, Fossils, Invertebrates, 'law of constant extinction', deep learning, fossil occurrences, mass extinction, neural networks
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
17/02/2020 16:16
Dernière modification de la notice
09/08/2024 15:08
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