A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction.
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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_F00A948C74FB
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction.
Journal
Ecology letters
ISSN
1461-0248 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1461-023X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
03/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
23
Number
3
Pages
439-446
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Letter
Publication Status: ppublish
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
Leigh Van Valen famously stated that under constant conditions extinction probability is independent of species age. To test this 'law of constant extinction', we developed a new method using deep learning to infer age-dependent extinction and analysed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We show that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases, indicating that most species died out soon after their appearance while those which survived experienced ever decreasing extinction risk. This age-dependent extinction pattern is stronger towards the Equator and holds true when the potential effects of mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation are accounted for. These results suggest that the effect of biological interactions on age-dependent extinction rate is more intense towards the tropics. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognised, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern.
Keywords
Animals, Biodiversity, Biological Evolution, Extinction, Biological, Fossils, Invertebrates, 'law of constant extinction', deep learning, fossil occurrences, mass extinction, neural networks
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
17/02/2020 16:16
Last modification date
09/08/2024 15:08