Background: Football (soccer) is one of the most popular sports in the world, including Europe. It is associated
with important betting activities. A common belief, widely spread among those who participate in gambling
activities, is that knowledge and expertise on football lead to better prediction skills for match outcomes. If
unfounded, however, this belief should be considered as a form of “illusion of control.” The aim of this study was to
examine whether football experts are better than nonexperts at predicting football match scores.
Methods: Two hundred and fifty-eight persons took part in the study: 21.3% as football experts, 54.3% as
laypersons (non-initiated to football), and 24.4% as football amateurs. They predicted the scores of the first 10
matches of the 2008 UEFA European Football Championship. Logistic regressions were carried out to assess the link
between the accuracy of the forecasted scores and the expertise of the participants (expert, amateur, layperson),
controlling for age and gender.
Results: The variables assessed did not predict the accuracy of scoring prognosis (R2 ranged from 1% to 6%).
Conclusions: Expertise, age, and gender did not appear to have an impact on the accuracy of the football match
prognoses. Therefore, the belief that football expertise improves betting skills is no more than a cognitive distortion
called the “illusion of control.” Gamblers may benefit from psychological interventions that target the illusion of
control related to their believed links between betting skills and football expertise. Public health policies may need
to consider the phenomenon in order to prevent problem gambling related to football betting.