Effects of expertise on football betting

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_EDAD8AE459D4
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Effects of expertise on football betting
Journal
Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy
Author(s)
Khazaal Yasser, Chatton Anne, Billieux Joël, Bizzini Lucio, Monney Grégoire, Fresard Emmanuelle, Thorens Gabriel, Bondolfi Guido, El-Guebaly Nady, Zullino Daniele, Khan Riaz
ISSN
1747-597X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2012
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
7
Number
1
Pages
18
Language
english
Abstract
Background: Football (soccer) is one of the most popular sports in the world, including Europe. It is associated
with important betting activities. A common belief, widely spread among those who participate in gambling
activities, is that knowledge and expertise on football lead to better prediction skills for match outcomes. If
unfounded, however, this belief should be considered as a form of “illusion of control.” The aim of this study was to
examine whether football experts are better than nonexperts at predicting football match scores.
Methods: Two hundred and fifty-eight persons took part in the study: 21.3% as football experts, 54.3% as
laypersons (non-initiated to football), and 24.4% as football amateurs. They predicted the scores of the first 10
matches of the 2008 UEFA European Football Championship. Logistic regressions were carried out to assess the link
between the accuracy of the forecasted scores and the expertise of the participants (expert, amateur, layperson),
controlling for age and gender.
Results: The variables assessed did not predict the accuracy of scoring prognosis (R2 ranged from 1% to 6%).
Conclusions: Expertise, age, and gender did not appear to have an impact on the accuracy of the football match
prognoses. Therefore, the belief that football expertise improves betting skills is no more than a cognitive distortion
called the “illusion of control.” Gamblers may benefit from psychological interventions that target the illusion of
control related to their believed links between betting skills and football expertise. Public health policies may need
to consider the phenomenon in order to prevent problem gambling related to football betting.
Keywords
Betting, Soccer, Gambling, Gambling Disorder
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
10/01/2020 10:31
Last modification date
22/01/2020 17:54
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