How estimation can benefit from an imbalanced world

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_D0518552F61A
Type
Partie de livre
Sous-type
Chapitre: chapitre ou section
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
How estimation can benefit from an imbalanced world
Titre du livre
Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Hertwig R., Hoffrage U., Sparr R.
Editeur
Oxford University Press
Lieu d'édition
New York, NY
ISBN
978-0-19-531544-8
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2012
Editeur⸱rice scientifique
Todd P. M., Gigerenzer G., the ABC Research Group
Numéro de chapitre
15
Pages
379-406
Langue
anglais
Résumé
This chapter analyzes how valuable the assumption of systematic environment imbalance is for performing rough-and-ready intuitive estimates, which people regularly do when inferring the quantitative value of an object (e.g., its frequency, size, value, or quality). The chapter outlines how systematic environment imbalance can be quantified using the framework of power laws. It investigates to what extent power-law characteristics and other statistical properties of real-world environments can be allies of two simple estimation heuristics, QuickEst and the mapping heuristic. The analyses, which involve comparing the estimation performances of the heuristics relative to more complex strategies, demonstrate that QuickEst could be particularly suited for deriving rough-and-ready estimates in skewed distributions with highly dispersed cue validities, whereas the mapping heuristic might be most suited when the cues have similar validities.
Mots-clé
Power law, Estimation, Statistical properties, QuickEst heuristic, Mapping heuristic, Skewness
Création de la notice
24/02/2009 15:34
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 16:50
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