How estimation can benefit from an imbalanced world
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_D0518552F61A
Type
A part of a book
Publication sub-type
Chapter: chapter ou part
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
How estimation can benefit from an imbalanced world
Title of the book
Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Address of publication
New York, NY
ISBN
978-0-19-531544-8
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2012
Editor
Todd P. M., Gigerenzer G., the ABC Research Group
Chapter
15
Pages
379-406
Language
english
Abstract
This chapter analyzes how valuable the assumption of systematic environment imbalance is for performing rough-and-ready intuitive estimates, which people regularly do when inferring the quantitative value of an object (e.g., its frequency, size, value, or quality). The chapter outlines how systematic environment imbalance can be quantified using the framework of power laws. It investigates to what extent power-law characteristics and other statistical properties of real-world environments can be allies of two simple estimation heuristics, QuickEst and the mapping heuristic. The analyses, which involve comparing the estimation performances of the heuristics relative to more complex strategies, demonstrate that QuickEst could be particularly suited for deriving rough-and-ready estimates in skewed distributions with highly dispersed cue validities, whereas the mapping heuristic might be most suited when the cues have similar validities.
Keywords
Power law, Estimation, Statistical properties, QuickEst heuristic, Mapping heuristic, Skewness
Publisher's website
Create date
24/02/2009 15:34
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:50