Higher Subseasonal Predictability of Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures as Compared to Average Summers
Détails
Télécharger: Geophysical Research Letters - 2019 - Wulff - Higher Subseasonal Predictability of Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures.pdf (1765.68 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_C7D06126CB8C
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Higher Subseasonal Predictability of Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures as Compared to Average Summers
Périodique
Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
1944-8007
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
28/10/2019
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
46
Numéro
20
Pages
11520-11529
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Summer temperatures in the last decades were increasingly characterized by persistent extremes, and there is evidence that this trend will continue in a warming climate. The exact timing of these extremes is less well known, and it is therefore crucial to consider their subseasonal predictability. We compare the prediction of summer 2m-temperature extremes in Europe with the prediction of average events for four subseasonal forecasting systems. We find higher prediction skill for warm extremes as compared to average events, with some regional dependence. The same is not true for cold extremes, indicating an asymmetry in the processes causing opposite summer temperature extremes. The forecast skill is strongly increased by the most severe and persistent events in the analyzed period. We hypothesize that the enhanced warm extreme skill is related to persistent flow patterns and land-atmosphere interaction. This could have implications for potentially enhanced predictability in a warming climate.
Mots-clé
temperature extremes, subseasonal prediction, summer heat waves
Web of science
Site de l'éditeur
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse / PP00P2_170523
Création de la notice
08/03/2022 14:12
Dernière modification de la notice
31/10/2024 22:49