Higher Subseasonal Predictability of Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures as Compared to Average Summers
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Download: Geophysical Research Letters - 2019 - Wulff - Higher Subseasonal Predictability of Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures.pdf (1765.68 [Ko])
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Version: Final published version
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State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: Not specified
Serval ID
serval:BIB_C7D06126CB8C
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Higher Subseasonal Predictability of Extreme Hot European Summer Temperatures as Compared to Average Summers
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
1944-8007
Publication state
Published
Issued date
28/10/2019
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
46
Number
20
Pages
11520-11529
Language
english
Abstract
Summer temperatures in the last decades were increasingly characterized by persistent extremes, and there is evidence that this trend will continue in a warming climate. The exact timing of these extremes is less well known, and it is therefore crucial to consider their subseasonal predictability. We compare the prediction of summer 2m-temperature extremes in Europe with the prediction of average events for four subseasonal forecasting systems. We find higher prediction skill for warm extremes as compared to average events, with some regional dependence. The same is not true for cold extremes, indicating an asymmetry in the processes causing opposite summer temperature extremes. The forecast skill is strongly increased by the most severe and persistent events in the analyzed period. We hypothesize that the enhanced warm extreme skill is related to persistent flow patterns and land-atmosphere interaction. This could have implications for potentially enhanced predictability in a warming climate.
Keywords
temperature extremes, subseasonal prediction, summer heat waves
Web of science
Publisher's website
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_170523
Create date
08/03/2022 14:12
Last modification date
31/10/2024 22:49