Probabilistic evaluation of n traces with no putative source: A likelihood ratio based approach in an investigative framework

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Manuscript.pdf (340.38 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Author's accepted manuscript
ID Serval
serval:BIB_B1372BCA1E8D
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Probabilistic evaluation of n traces with no putative source: A likelihood ratio based approach in an investigative framework
Périodique
Forensic Science International
Auteur(s)
De March I., Sironi E., Taroni F.
ISSN
0379-0738
ISSN-L
0379-0738
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
09/2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
266
Pages
527-533
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Analysis of marks recovered from different crime scenes can be useful to detect a linkage between criminal cases, even though a putative source for the recovered traces is not available. This particular circumstance is often encountered in the early stage of investigations and thus, the evaluation of evidence association may provide useful information for the investigators. This association is evaluated here from a probabilistic point of view: a likelihood ratio based approach is suggested in order to quantify the strength of the evidence of trace association in the light of two mutually exclusive propositions, namely that the n traces come from a common source or from an unspecified number of sources. To deal with this kind of problem, probabilistic graphical models are used, in form of Bayesian networks and object-oriented Bayesian networks, allowing users to intuitively handle with uncertainty related to the inferential problem.
Mots-clé
Evidence interpretation, likelihood ratio, bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks, case linkage, Pathology and Forensic Medicine, Pathology and Forensic Medicine
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
15/09/2016 7:41
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:20
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