Efficient multi-objective calibration and uncertainty analysis of distributed snow simulations in rugged alpine terrain

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Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_A98F34240ED8
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Efficient multi-objective calibration and uncertainty analysis of distributed snow simulations in rugged alpine terrain
Périodique
Journal of Hydrology
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Thornton J.M., Brauchli T., Mariethoz G., Brunner P.
ISSN
0022-1694
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
07/2021
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
598
Pages
126241
Langue
anglais
Résumé
In mountainous terrain, reliable snow simulations are crucial for many applications. However, except in highly instrumented research catchments, meteorological data are usually limited, and so the interpolated spatial fields used to force snow models are uncertain. Moreover, certain potentially important processes cannot presently be simulated at catchment scales using entirely physical algorithms. It is therefore often appropriate to introduce empirical parameters into otherwise physically-based snow models. Many opportunities to incorporate snow observations into the parameter estimation process now exist, but they remain to be fully exploited. In this context, a novel approach to the calibration of an energy balance-based snow model that additionally accounts for gravitational redistribution is presented. Several important parameters were estimated using an efficient, gradient-based method with respect to two complementary observation types – Landsat 8-derived snow extent maps, and reconstructed snow water equivalent (SWE) time-series. When assessed on a per-pixel basis, observed patterns were ultimately reproduced with a mean accuracy of 85%. Spatial performance metrics compared favourably with those previously reported, whilst the temporal evolution of SWE at the stations was also satisfactorily captured. Subsequent uncertainty and data worth analyses revealed that: i) the propensity for model predictions to be erroneous was substantially reduced by calibration, ii) pre-calibration uncertainty was largely associated with two parameters which modify the longwave component of the energy balance, but this uncertainty was greatly diminished by calibration, and iii) a lower elevation SWE series was particularly valuable, despite containing comparatively few observations. Overall, our work demonstrates that contemporary snow models, observation technologies, and inverse approaches can be combined to both constrain and quantify the uncertainty associated with simulations of alpine snow dynamics.
Mots-clé
Water Science and Technology
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse / CR23I2_162754
Création de la notice
30/07/2021 11:09
Dernière modification de la notice
03/12/2022 7:48
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