Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_8D6FAD8D9B89
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion
Périodique
Law, Probability and Risk
Auteur(s)
Biedermann A., Taroni F., Thompson W. C.
ISSN
1470-840X
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
06/2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
10
Numéro
2
Pages
89-121
Langue
anglais
Résumé
This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.
Mots-clé
DNA mixture case study Bayesian networks
Création de la notice
27/06/2011 8:27
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:51
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