Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_8D6FAD8D9B89
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion
Journal
Law, Probability and Risk
ISSN
1470-840X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
06/2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
10
Number
2
Pages
89-121
Language
english
Abstract
This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.
Keywords
DNA mixture case study Bayesian networks
Publisher's website
Create date
27/06/2011 7:27
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:51