The Winter North Pacific Teleconnection in Response to ENSO and the MJO in Operational Subseasonal Forecasting Models Is Too Weak
Détails
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Accès restreint UNIL
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
Accès restreint UNIL
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_7E81041BDE45
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
The Winter North Pacific Teleconnection in Response to ENSO and the MJO in Operational Subseasonal Forecasting Models Is Too Weak
Périodique
Journal of Climate
ISSN
0894-8755
1520-0442
1520-0442
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
15/12/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
35
Numéro
24
Pages
4413-4430
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Teleconnection patterns associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact weather and climate phenomena in the Pacific–North American region and beyond, and therefore accurately simulating these teleconnections is of importance for seasonal and subseasonal forecasts. Systematic biases in boreal midwinter ENSO and MJO teleconnections are found in eight subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models over the Pacific–North America region. All models simulate an anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height response that is too weak. This overly weak response is associated with overly weak subtropical upper-level convergence and a too-weak Rossby wave source in most models, and in several models there is also a biased subtropical Pacific jet, which affects the propagation of Rossby waves. In addition to this overly weak response, all models also simulate ENSO teleconnections that reach too far poleward toward Alaska and northeastern Russia. The net effect is that these models likely underestimate the impacts associated with the MJO and ENSO over western North America, and suffer from a reduction in skill from what could be achieved.
Mots-clé
El Niño, Madden-Julian oscillation, Teleconnections
Web of science
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse / PP00P2_198896
Création de la notice
19/01/2023 17:50
Dernière modification de la notice
01/11/2024 14:02