Combining global climate models using graph cuts

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Thao2022_Article_CombiningGlobalClimateModelsUs.pdf (7415.42 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_69639A9842C6
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Combining global climate models using graph cuts
Périodique
Climate Dynamics
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Thao Soulivanh, Garvik Mats, Mariethoz Gregoire, Vrac Mathieu
ISSN
0930-7575
1432-0894
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
15/03/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Global Climate Models are the main tools for climate projections. Since many models exist, it is common to use Multi-Model Ensembles to reduce biases and assess uncertainties in climate projections. Several approaches have been proposed to combine individual models and extract a robust signal from an ensemble. Among them, the Multi-Model Mean (MMM) is the most commonly used. Based on the assumption that the models are centered around the truth, it consists in averaging the ensemble, with the possibility of using equal weights for all models or to adjust weights to favor some models. In this paper, we propose a new alternative to reconstruct multi-decadal means of climate variables from a Multi-Model Ensemble, where the local performance of the models is taken into account. This is in contrast with MMM where a model has the same weight for all locations. Our approach is based on a computer vision method called graph cuts and consists in selecting for each grid point the most appropriate model, while at the same time considering the overall spatial consistency of the resulting field. The performance of the graph cuts approach is assessed based on two experiments: one where the ERA5 reanalyses are considered as the reference, and another involving a perfect model experiment where each model is in turn considered as the reference. We show that the graph cuts approach generally results in lower biases than other model combination approaches such as MMM, while at the same time preserving a similar level of spatial continuity.
Mots-clé
Atmospheric Science
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Conseil Européen de la Recherche (ERC) / 565338965-A2C2
Université de Lausanne
Création de la notice
08/04/2022 14:42
Dernière modification de la notice
19/08/2022 7:10
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