Floods, landslides, and adapting to climate change in Nepal: What role for climate change models?

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_615351560BE6
Type
Partie de livre
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Floods, landslides, and adapting to climate change in Nepal: What role for climate change models?
Titre du livre
Community, environment and disaster risk management: Climate change modeling for local adaptation in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region
Auteur(s)
Sudmeier-Rieux K., Gaillard J.-C., Sharma S., Dubois J., Jaboyedoff M.
Editeur
Emerald Group
ISBN
978-1-78052-486-3
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2012
Editeur scientifique
Lamadrid A., Kelman I.
Volume
11
Numéro de chapitre
7
Pages
119-140
Langue
anglais
Notes
Sudmeier-Rieux2012a
Résumé
Climate change data and predictions for the Himalayas are very sparse
and uncertain, characterized by a ?Himalayan data gap? and difficulties
in predicting changes due to topographic complexity. A few reliable
studies and climate change models for Nepal predict considerable
changes: shorter monsoon seasons, more intensive rainfall patterns,
higher temperatures, and drought. These predictions are confirmed
by farmers who claim that temperatures have been increasing for the
past decade and wonder why the rains have ?gone mad.? The number
of hazard events, notably droughts, floods, and landslides are increasing
and now account for approximately 100 deaths in Nepal annually. Other
effects are drinking water shortages and shifting agricultural patterns,
with many communities struggling to meet basic food security before
climatic conditions started changing.
The aim of this paper is to examine existing gaps between current
climate models and the realities of local development planning through
a case study on flood risk and drinking water management for the
Municipality of Dharan in Eastern Nepal. This example highlights
current challenges facing local-level governments, namely, flood
and landslide mitigation, providing basic amenities ? especially
an urgent lack of drinking water during the dry season ? poor local
planning capacities, and limited resources. In this context, the
challenge for Nepal will be to simultaneously address increasing
risks caused by hazard events alongside the omnipresent food security
and drinking water issues in both urban and rural areas. Local planning
is needed that integrates rural development and disaster risk reduction
(DRR) with knowledge about climate change considerations. The paper
concludes with a critical analysis of climate change modeling and
the gap between scientific data and low-tech and low capacities of
local planners to access or implement adequate adaptation measures.
Recommendations include the need to bridge gaps between scientific
models, the local political reality and local information needs.
Création de la notice
25/11/2013 17:26
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:18
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