Climate change data and predictions for the Himalayas are very sparse
and uncertain, characterized by a ?Himalayan data gap? and difficulties
in predicting changes due to topographic complexity. A few reliable
studies and climate change models for Nepal predict considerable
changes: shorter monsoon seasons, more intensive rainfall patterns,
higher temperatures, and drought. These predictions are confirmed
by farmers who claim that temperatures have been increasing for the
past decade and wonder why the rains have ?gone mad.? The number
of hazard events, notably droughts, floods, and landslides are increasing
and now account for approximately 100 deaths in Nepal annually. Other
effects are drinking water shortages and shifting agricultural patterns,
with many communities struggling to meet basic food security before
climatic conditions started changing.
The aim of this paper is to examine existing gaps between current
climate models and the realities of local development planning through
a case study on flood risk and drinking water management for the
Municipality of Dharan in Eastern Nepal. This example highlights
current challenges facing local-level governments, namely, flood
and landslide mitigation, providing basic amenities ? especially
an urgent lack of drinking water during the dry season ? poor local
planning capacities, and limited resources. In this context, the
challenge for Nepal will be to simultaneously address increasing
risks caused by hazard events alongside the omnipresent food security
and drinking water issues in both urban and rural areas. Local planning
is needed that integrates rural development and disaster risk reduction
(DRR) with knowledge about climate change considerations. The paper
concludes with a critical analysis of climate change modeling and
the gap between scientific data and low-tech and low capacities of
local planners to access or implement adequate adaptation measures.
Recommendations include the need to bridge gaps between scientific
models, the local political reality and local information needs.