Overconfidence in Tournaments: Evidence from the Field

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: serval:BIB_4B30BFDFE55D.P001 (225.43 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: de l'auteur
Licence: Non spécifiée
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ID Serval
serval:BIB_4B30BFDFE55D
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Overconfidence in Tournaments: Evidence from the Field
Périodique
Theory and Decision
Auteur(s)
Park Y. J., Santos Pinto L.
ISSN
0040-5833
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
07/2010
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
69
Numéro
1
Pages
143-166
Langue
anglais
Résumé
This paper uses a field survey to investigate the quality of individuals' beliefs of relative performance in tournaments. We consider two field settings, poker and chess, which differ in the degree to which luck is a factor and also in the information that players have about the ability of the competition. We find that poker players' forecasts of relative performance are random guesses with an overestimation bias. Chess players also overestimate their relative performance but make informed guesses. We find support for the "unskilled and unaware hypothesis" in chess: high-skilled chess players make better forecasts than low-skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players' forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.
Mots-clé
Tournaments, Rationality, Field experiment
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
20/07/2010 12:05
Dernière modification de la notice
01/10/2019 7:17
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