Overconfidence in Tournaments: Evidence from the Field

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_4B30BFDFE55D
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Overconfidence in Tournaments: Evidence from the Field
Journal
Theory and Decision
Author(s)
Park Y. J., Santos Pinto L.
ISSN
0040-5833
Publication state
Published
Issued date
07/2010
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
69
Number
1
Pages
143-166
Language
english
Abstract
This paper uses a field survey to investigate the quality of individuals' beliefs of relative performance in tournaments. We consider two field settings, poker and chess, which differ in the degree to which luck is a factor and also in the information that players have about the ability of the competition. We find that poker players' forecasts of relative performance are random guesses with an overestimation bias. Chess players also overestimate their relative performance but make informed guesses. We find support for the "unskilled and unaware hypothesis" in chess: high-skilled chess players make better forecasts than low-skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players' forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.
Keywords
Tournaments, Rationality, Field experiment
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
20/07/2010 12:05
Last modification date
01/10/2019 7:17
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