Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches.
Détails
ID Serval
serval:BIB_3292A5F446E0
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches.
Périodique
Nature Ecology & Evolution
ISSN
2397-334X (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2397-334X
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
07/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
8
Numéro
7
Pages
1298-1310
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: ppublish
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.
Mots-clé
Climate Change, Ecosystem, Animals, Biodiversity, Plants, Models, Biological
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Université de Lausanne
Université de Lausanne
Création de la notice
05/06/2024 10:17
Dernière modification de la notice
01/11/2024 14:02