Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_3292A5F446E0
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches
Journal
Nature Ecology and Evolution
Author(s)
Chevalier M., Broennimann O., Guisan A.
Publication state
In Press
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Language
english
Abstract
The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower—yet still alarming—rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.
Keywords
niche contiguity, available climate, niche expansion, pre-adaptation
Pubmed
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
University of Lausanne
University of Lausanne
Create date
05/06/2024 11:17
Last modification date
06/06/2024 6:59
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