Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models?
Détails
Télécharger: JGR Atmospheres - 2019 - Garfinkel - Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Ni o Southern Oscillation to the Arctic.pdf (2506.41 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_1C21B97ADD5F
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models?
Périodique
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN
2169-897X
2169-8996
2169-8996
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
27/07/2019
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
124
Numéro
14
Pages
7683-7696
Langue
anglais
Résumé
While a connection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex appears robust in observational studies focusing on the period before 1979 and in many modeling studies, this connection is not evident over the past few decades. In this study, the factors that have led to the disappearance of the ENSO-vortex relationship are assessed by comparing this relationship in observational data and in operational subseasonal forecasting models over the past few decades. For reforecasts initialized in December, the models simulate a significantly weaker vortex during El Niño than La Niña (LN) as occurred before 1979, but no such effect was observed to have occurred. The apparent cause of this is the eastern European and western Siberian height anomalies present during ENSO. The observed LN events were associated with persistent ridging over eastern Europe as compared to El Niño. Although the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal models are initialized with this ridge, the ridge quickly dissipates. As ridging over this region enhances wave flux entering the stratosphere, the net effect is no robust stratospheric response to ENSO in the observations despite a North Pacific teleconnection that would, in isolation, lead to less wave flux for LN. The anomalies in the eastern European sector in response to ENSO likely reflect unforced internal atmospheric variability.
Mots-clé
El Niño, Arctic vortex, subseasonal forecasting
Web of science
Site de l'éditeur
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse / 170523
Création de la notice
08/03/2022 14:12
Dernière modification de la notice
11/07/2024 9:58