A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard
Détails
Télécharger: Peleg 2024.pdf (1480.00 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_147A1BEF1754
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard
Périodique
Advances in Water Resources
ISSN
0309-1708
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
11/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
193
Pages
104823
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Hydrologists and civil engineers often use design storms to assess flash flood hazards in urban, rural, and mountainous catchments. These synthetic storms are not representations of real extreme rainfall events, but rather simplified versions parameterized to mimic extreme precipitation statistics often obtained from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. To construct design storms for the future climate, it is thus necessary first to recalculate IDF curves to represent rainfall under warmer conditions. We propose a framework for adjusting IDF curves and design storms to future climate conditions using the TENAX model, a novel statistical approach that can provide future short-duration precipitation return levels based on projected temperature changes. For most applications, information from climate models at the daily scale can be used to construct design storms at the sub-hourly scale without any downscaling or bias adjustment. Our approach is illustrated through a re-parameterization of the Chicago Design Storm (CDS) in the context of climate change. As a case study demonstration, we apply the TENAX model to data from the city of Zurich to calculate changes in the historical IDF curve for durations ranging from 10 min to 3 h. We then construct synthetic 100-year return period design storms based on the CDS for present and future climates and use the CAFlood model to produce flood inundation maps to assess changes in flood hazard. The codes for adapting design storms to climate change are simple to implement, easily applicable by practitioners, and made freely available.
Mots-clé
Extreme precipitation, Rainfall return level, Present and future IDF curves, Design storm implementation
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse
Création de la notice
20/09/2024 20:45
Dernière modification de la notice
18/10/2024 15:58