A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_147A1BEF1754
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
A simple and robust approach for adapting design storms to assess climate-induced changes in flash flood hazard
Journal
Advances in Water Resources
ISSN
0309-1708
Publication state
Published
Issued date
11/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
193
Pages
104823
Language
english
Abstract
Hydrologists and civil engineers often use design storms to assess flash flood hazards in urban, rural, and mountainous catchments. These synthetic storms are not representations of real extreme rainfall events, but rather simplified versions parameterized to mimic extreme precipitation statistics often obtained from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. To construct design storms for the future climate, it is thus necessary first to recalculate IDF curves to represent rainfall under warmer conditions. We propose a framework for adjusting IDF curves and design storms to future climate conditions using the TENAX model, a novel statistical approach that can provide future short-duration precipitation return levels based on projected temperature changes. For most applications, information from climate models at the daily scale can be used to construct design storms at the sub-hourly scale without any downscaling or bias adjustment. Our approach is illustrated through a re-parameterization of the Chicago Design Storm (CDS) in the context of climate change. As a case study demonstration, we apply the TENAX model to data from the city of Zurich to calculate changes in the historical IDF curve for durations ranging from 10 min to 3 h. We then construct synthetic 100-year return period design storms based on the CDS for present and future climates and use the CAFlood model to produce flood inundation maps to assess changes in flood hazard. The codes for adapting design storms to climate change are simple to implement, easily applicable by practitioners, and made freely available.
Keywords
Extreme precipitation, Rainfall return level, Present and future IDF curves, Design storm implementation
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation
Create date
20/09/2024 20:45
Last modification date
18/10/2024 15:58