Bayesian workflow for time-varying transmission in stratified compartmental infectious disease transmission models.

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_F36C19A0F019
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Bayesian workflow for time-varying transmission in stratified compartmental infectious disease transmission models.
Journal
PLoS computational biology
Author(s)
Bouman J.A., Hauser A., Grimm S.L., Wohlfender M., Bhatt S., Semenova E., Gelman A., Althaus C.L. (co-last), Riou J. (co-last)
ISSN
1553-7358 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1553-734X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
29/04/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
20
Number
4
Pages
e1011575
Language
english
Abstract
Compartmental models that describe infectious disease transmission across subpopulations are central for assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, behavioral changes and seasonal effects on the spread of respiratory infections. We present a Bayesian workflow for such models, including four features: (1) an adjustment for incomplete case ascertainment, (2) an adequate sampling distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases, (3) a flexible, time-varying transmission rate, and (4) a stratification by age group. Within the workflow, we benchmarked the performance of various implementations of two of these features (2 and 3). For the second feature, we used SARS-CoV-2 data from the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) and found that a quasi-Poisson distribution is the most suitable sampling distribution for describing the overdispersion in the observed laboratory-confirmed cases. For the third feature, we implemented three methods: Brownian motion, B-splines, and approximate Gaussian processes (aGP). We compared their performance in terms of the number of effective samples per second, and the error and sharpness in estimating the time-varying transmission rate over a selection of ordinary differential equation solvers and tuning parameters, using simulated seroprevalence and laboratory-confirmed case data. Even though all methods could recover the time-varying dynamics in the transmission rate accurately, we found that B-splines perform up to four and ten times faster than Brownian motion and aGPs, respectively. We validated the B-spline model with simulated age-stratified data. We applied this model to 2020 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and two seroprevalence studies from the canton of Geneva. This resulted in detailed estimates of the transmission rate over time and the case ascertainment. Our results illustrate the potential of the presented workflow including stratified transmission to estimate age-specific epidemiological parameters. The workflow is freely available in the R package HETTMO, and can be easily adapted and applied to other infectious diseases.
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
03/05/2024 13:45
Last modification date
09/08/2024 15:08
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