Modelling Cause-of-Death Mortality and the Impact of Cause-Elimination

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_EB61A9EAD969
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Modelling Cause-of-Death Mortality and the Impact of Cause-Elimination
Journal
Annals of Actuarial Science
Author(s)
Alai D.H., Sherris M.
Working group(s)
Arnold (-Gaille) S.
ISSN
1748-4995 (Print)
1748-5002 (Online)
Publication state
Published
Issued date
03/2015
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
9
Number
1
Pages
167-186
Language
english
Abstract
The analysis of causal mortality provides rich insight into changes in mortality trends that are hidden in population level data. Therefore, we develop and apply a multinomial logistic framework to model causal mortality. We use internationally classified cause-of-death categories and data obtained from the World Health Organization. Inherent dependence amongst the competing causes is accounted for in the framework, which also allows us to investigate the effects of improvements in, or the elimination of, cause-specific mortality. This has applications to scenario-based forecasting often used to assess the impact of changes in mortality. The multinomial model is shown to be more conservative than commonly used approaches based on the force of mortality. We use the model to demonstrate the impact of cause-elimination on aggregate mortality using residual life expectancy and apply the model to a French case study.
Keywords
Cause-of-death mortality, Multinomial logistic regression, Cause-elimination, Life expectancy, 22 Mortality forecasts
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
17/10/2014 21:19
Last modification date
01/10/2019 6:20
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