Estimating quantities: Comparing simple heuristics and machine learning algorithms

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_A8FE25726D65
Type
Inproceedings: an article in a conference proceedings.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Estimating quantities: Comparing simple heuristics and machine learning algorithms
Title of the conference
Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning, ICANN 2012 - 22nd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Lausanne, Switzerland, September 11-14, 2012
Author(s)
Woike J., Hoffrage U., Hertwig R.
Publisher
Springer Verlag
Address
Heidelberg
ISBN
978-3-642-33265-4
978-3-642-33266-1
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2012
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Editor
Villa A., Duch W., Erdi P., Masulli F., Palm G.
Volume
7553
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Pages
483-490
Language
english
Abstract
Estimating quantities is an important everyday task. We analyzed the performance of various estimation strategies in ninety-nine real-world environments drawn from various domains. In an extensive simulation study, we compared two classes of strategies: one included machine learning algorithms such as general regression neural networks and classification and regression trees, the other two psychologically plausible and computationally much simpler heuristics (QEst and Zig-QEst). We report the strategies' ability to generalize from training sets to new data and explore the ecological rationality of their use; that is, how well they perform as a function of the statistical structure of the environment. While the machine learning algorithms outperform the heuristics when fitting data, Zig-QEst is competitive when making predictions out-of-sample.
Keywords
Estimation, Simple heuristics, General regression neural networks, QuickEst, Ecological rationality
Create date
07/12/2012 16:43
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:13
Usage data