Estimating quantities: Comparing simple heuristics and machine learning algorithms

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_A8FE25726D65
Type
Actes de conférence (partie): contribution originale à la littérature scientifique, publiée à l'occasion de conférences scientifiques, dans un ouvrage de compte-rendu (proceedings), ou dans l'édition spéciale d'un journal reconnu (conference proceedings).
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Estimating quantities: Comparing simple heuristics and machine learning algorithms
Titre de la conférence
Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning, ICANN 2012 - 22nd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Lausanne, Switzerland, September 11-14, 2012
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Woike J., Hoffrage U., Hertwig R.
Editeur
Springer Verlag
Adresse
Heidelberg
ISBN
978-3-642-33265-4
978-3-642-33266-1
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2012
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Editeur⸱rice scientifique
Villa A., Duch W., Erdi P., Masulli F., Palm G.
Volume
7553
Série
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Pages
483-490
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Estimating quantities is an important everyday task. We analyzed the performance of various estimation strategies in ninety-nine real-world environments drawn from various domains. In an extensive simulation study, we compared two classes of strategies: one included machine learning algorithms such as general regression neural networks and classification and regression trees, the other two psychologically plausible and computationally much simpler heuristics (QEst and Zig-QEst). We report the strategies' ability to generalize from training sets to new data and explore the ecological rationality of their use; that is, how well they perform as a function of the statistical structure of the environment. While the machine learning algorithms outperform the heuristics when fitting data, Zig-QEst is competitive when making predictions out-of-sample.
Mots-clé
Estimation, Simple heuristics, General regression neural networks, QuickEst, Ecological rationality
Création de la notice
07/12/2012 16:43
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 16:13
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