German Voters in Times of Crisis : The Impact of Perceptions and Economic Context on Electoral Behaviour

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_95FBE62ADECA
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
German Voters in Times of Crisis : The Impact of Perceptions and Economic Context on Electoral Behaviour
Journal
German Politics
Author(s)
Trein Philipp, Beckmann Ruth, Walter Stefanie
ISSN
0964-4008 (Print)
1743-8993 (Online)
Publication state
Published
Issued date
03/07/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
26
Number
3
Pages
414-439
Language
english
Abstract
This paper analyses the connection between economic context, voters’ individual assessment of the economy, and party identification, taking the German national elections of 2009 as an example. Based on the results of multinomial and multilevel regression models, the article shows that partisanship moderates how the economy affects the vote. In cases of increasing unemployment in the constituency, voters are less likely to vote for the Social Democrats instead of the CDU and the opposition. This effect is particularly strong amongst voters who report that they identify with the Social Democrats. Regarding the effect of voters’ assessment of the national economy, the results are different. In this case, a better evaluation of the regional economy increases the probability to vote for right-wing parties – notably amongst voters without partisanship. These findings suggest that the moderating effect of partisanship on the economy’s impact on voting behaviour should not be overestimated. What is more, this analysis implies that research on economic voting should always account for both contextual factors and voters’ personal assessment of the economy, as these measures reveal different dimensions of economic voting.
Keywords
Political Science and International Relations, Sociology and Political Science
Create date
04/10/2017 18:17
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:58
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