Overconfidence

Details

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State: Public
Version: author
Serval ID
serval:BIB_7CE431A213E1
Type
A part of a book
Publication sub-type
Chapter: chapter ou part
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Overconfidence
Title of the book
Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgement, and memory
Author(s)
Hoffrage U.
Publisher
Psychology Press
Address of publication
Hove, UK
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2016
Editor
Pohl R. F.
Pages
291-314
Language
english
Abstract
Overconfidence occurs if our confidences related to our judgments, inferences, or predictions are too high when compared to the corresponding accuracy. For the current review, I commence with (1) a brief overview of the three most frequently used tasks and measures, then (2) present classroom demonstrations, (3) summarize some major findings, (4) introduce and evaluate models and theoretical accounts, (5) discuss the functional value of overconfidence, (6) briefly mention its relevance in applied settings, and (7) conclude with some final remarks, a summary, and a list of further literature.
Keywords
Overconfidence, Overplacement, Overprecision, Calibration, Expertise, Hard-Easy Effect, Probabilistic Mental Models, Representative Design, Senory Discrimination, Finance, Trading, CEOs, Entrepreneurship, Market Entry
Create date
23/05/2016 12:42
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:38
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