Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_54A88C89AA72
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research
Journal
Electoral Studies
Author(s)
Strijbis Oliver, Arnesen Sveinung, Bernhard Laurent
ISSN
0261-3794
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2016
Volume
44
Pages
144-150
Language
english
Abstract
This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.
Keywords
Turnout, Rationality, Direct democracy, Prediction markets, Switzerland
Web of science
Create date
17/10/2018 10:12
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:09
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