Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_50627D25C5D2
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach
Journal
Energy
Author(s)
Martínez-Jaramillo Juan Esteban, van Ackere Ann, Larsen Erik R.
ISSN
0360-5442
Publication state
Published
Issued date
01/2022
Volume
239
Pages
122360
Language
english
Abstract
Many countries have targeted a gradual transition towards 100% green generation; however, there is uncertainty concerning the economic and social consequences of such a transition. The main technologies that have been implemented are hydro, wind and solar. The latter two could cause an increase in electricity prices due to a mismatch between demand and supply. This paper uses a system dynamics approach to analyze the transition process of Switzerland, which is gradually moving from nuclear towards solar and hydro base generation. We consider hydro-pumped storage to address the timing problem between supply and demand. We developed different scenarios to test the viability of such a system. Our findings indicate that leaving the system to a free market will entail shortages during the transition, as well as a doubling of the electricity price. To mitigate this effect, we propose a capacity auction mechanism to smooth the transition process. We find that subsidizing PV indirectly encourages storage, thereby eliminating shortages, and mitigating the increase in the electricity price during the transition.
Keywords
Energy transition, Pumped hydro-storage, System dynamics, Energy policy, Renewables
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / 100018_169376
Create date
28/10/2021 14:27
Last modification date
02/03/2022 7:09
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