Patella-related complications after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remain a major clinical concern. Previous studies have suggested that increased postoperative patellar bone strain could be related to such complications, but there is limited knowledge on patellar strain after TKA. The objective of this study was to predict patellar bone strain after TKA and evaluate correlations with various preoperative data. Fourteen TKA patients with a minimum follow-up of one year were included in this study. Using preoperative CT datasets, preoperative planning, and postoperative X-rays, a method is presented to generate patient-specific finite element models after virtual TKA. Patellar kinematics and forces were predicted during a squat movement, and patellar bone strain was evaluated at 60° of knee flexion. Strain varied greatly among patients, but was strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.85, p < 0.001) with bone mineral density (BMD) and moderately positively (r  = 0.54, p  =  0.05) with body mass index (BMI). The BMI/BMD ratio explained 87% of strain, and should be further investigated as a potential risk factor for clinical complications. This study represents a preliminary step towards the identification of patients at risk of patellar complications after TKA.